Saturday, June 2, 2012

Pakistan-U.S ties


Background:
Mullen Lashes At ISI
·         Relations between Pakistan and the US have been volatile throughout the year (OBL incident + drone strikes) but they took an unexpected dive after Admiral Mike Mullen’s (American Joint Chiefs of Staff) congressional testimony implicating the Inter-Service Intelligence directorate in the Haqqani network’s deadly breach of security in what is deemed to be the safest part of Kabul (attack on the US embassy at Kabul on September 13th).
·         Undoubtedly this is a swift initiative by the US to the rock bottom in their relations with the potential to actualize into direct punitive actions on a wide spectrum spanning multifaceted military, diplomatic, economic and psychological fronts.
·         The irony of the USA’s approach is that while strategically on the retreat, having declared the dilution of military presence in Afghanistan, and contingent upon crafting a viable pro-US dispensation in the region, it is operationally adopting a belligerent attitude towards Pakistan especially FATA which holds the key to peace in Afghanistan.
Some statements from the US high-ups
US can prove Pakistan’s ties with Haqqanis – Cameron Munter (the US ambassador to Islamabad). White house backs Mike Mullens allegations, “It is critical that the government of Pakisatn breaks any links they have and take strong action against the Haqqani network.” White House spokesman Jay Carney told a briefing in Washington.
Pakistan’s response
·         Gilani cautions US on negative messaging
·         US boots not to be tolerated in Pakistan- Rehman Malik
·         Mullen’s statement not based on facts- General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani
·         Pakistan never backed Haqqani Network- Lt. General Ahmed Shuja Pasha
·         Foreign Office stresses respect for sovereignty – Tehmina Janjua (FO spokesperson)
·         Gilani mobilizes the political parties of Pakistan to attend APC (All Party’s Conference)

Diplomacy underway to de-escalate crisis
·         General Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani met Admiral Mike Mullen in Seville (Spain).
·         Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar had a lengthy discussion with US Secretary of the State Hillary Clinton in New York.
·         Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir had a talk with US envoy to Afghanistan Marc Grossman and with the US ambassador to Pakistan, Cameron Munter in Islamabad.
·         ISI Chief Shuja Pasha met CIA Director Petraeus.
·         APC (55 leaders representing various shades of opinion confirmed participation) –
13 point resolution ‘stress on peace with our own people’.

What Next… (Future of ties with the US)
The political and defence analysts hold divergent views with regards to the future of Pak-US ties. The anti-Americanism is prevailing in Pakistan. The best possible solution is to invite the US to the negotiation table and let us talk peace! We need to make the Americans realize now that they are not fighting a specific insurgency (i.e Haqqanis or Talibans), but an entire Afghan nation; they are fighting the Afghan people! It is about time the Taliban’s legitimate national aspirations be respected and their moral and political rights recognized in an independent Afghanistan.
For that the 13-point resolution passed by the APC should be implemented in letter and spirit, Pakistan has to ensure regional stability in South Asia after USA’s exit from Afghanistan and for that reason it has to strengthen ties with all its neighbours, Afghanistan being the most important one!
_______________________


What’s going on in the U.S? (Economic recession…)
NEW YORK- Protests against Wall Street entered their 18th day on October 5 as demonstrators across the country showed their anger over the wobbly economy and what they see as corporate greed by marching on Federal Reserve banks and camping out.
Demonstrations are expected to continue throughout the week as more groups hold organizational meetings and air their concerns on websites and through streaming video.
A slice of America`s discontented, from college students worried about their job prospects to middle-age workers who have been recently laid off, were galvanized after the arrests of 700 protesters on the Brooklyn Bridge over the weekend. Some protesters likened themselves to the tea party movement but with a liberal bent or to the Arab Spring demonstrators who brought down their rulers in the Middle East.
Iranian President Ahmadinejad TAGS Wall Street Protests as the ‘AMERICAN SPRING’
Panetta warns Nato US won`t be able to fill defence gaps The US military faces serious budget cuts and will be unable to make up any shortfalls in the Nato alliance as European members slash defence spending, Pentagon chief Leon Panetta warned on  October 6.
Fiscal pressures are bearing down on both sides of the Atlantic and Nato allies will need to work closely together to pool funds, instead of counting on America`s much larger defence spending to close the gap, Panetta said.

`As for the United States, many might assume that the United States defence budget is so large it can absorb and cover alliance shortcomings but make no mistake about it, we are facing dramatic cuts with real implications for alliance capability,` the US defence secretary said in a speech in Brussels.Panetta delivered his warning ahead of talks with Nato counterparts in Brussels, centred on the missions in Libya and Afghanistan as well as the shortcomings the alliance has witnessed in carrying out the operations.

Although US defence spending far exceeds European budgets, Panetta said American military leaders were facing $450 billion in cuts over 10 years, which he called `tough but manageable.` But if the US Congress fails to tackle the country`s deficit this year, the Pentagon `could face additional cuts in defense ... (that) would be devastating to our national security and to yours as well.` The cuts contemplated by the Pentagon would reduce the size of the force and curtail some weapons programmes, but the gargantuan US defence budget at nearly $700 billion still dwarfs that of the 27 other Nato members combined.
US army has discipline problem, says general The US Army`s top commander in Europe says discipline among soldiers is a problem that if not addressed could become `cancerous.

Lt Gen Mark Hertling told a small group of reporters on October 8 that only a small percentage of soldiers lack proper discipline, but he stressed his concern that it be fixed, now that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are winding down and more troops are returning to their home bases.
Pak – US ties -- a glimpse
Background:
·         Intense US pressure during the past week.
·         There was an exchange of assertive opinions between the intelligence-services of both the countries.
Some statements:
Military aid linked with `cooperation`, says US embassy
·         A spokesman for the US Embassy, Mark Stroh said on October 5 that military assistance to Pakistan had not been cut off, but suspended. He said the security assistance would be based on `cooperation` between the two countries. The military assistance to Pakistan includes the Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and the Pakistan Capacity Building Fund (PCBF). Mr. Stroh said the US assistance for civilian side, including in energy and other sectors, would continue.

·         Inter-Services Public Relations director-general Maj-Gen Athar Abbas also confirmed that the US had suspended military assistance to Pakistan, but had not conveyed it in black and white.

·         He said the US had also suspended the $7 billion Kerry-Lugar package under which only $300 million had been released against a commitment of $1.5 billion per year for the five-year package. A joint working group on military and capacity building assistance was to meet on May 2 this year, but the meeting was called off because of US operation in Abbottabad the same day.

No mediatory role for India in Afghanistan: US
·         India has no mediatory role in Afghanistan, said the US State Department as Defence Secretary Leon Panetta expressed the desire to build a `cooperative and trusting` relationship with Pakistan. `With regard to playing a mediating role, I don`t think that`s what we`re looking for here. We do believe this trilateral structure is of value and we should continue its’ State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said when asked if India could play a mediatory role in Afghanistan.

·         The trilateral structure she referred to includes the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan and senior US envoy Mark Grossman is currently visiting the region to help arrange the next meeting of this forum, scheduled on Nov 1-2 in Turkey.


·         Mr. Grossman also plans to visit New Delhi for talks on Afghanistan but Miss Nuland said the US had no plan to ask India to attend the trilateral talks. The State Department official said the US was also supporting `any and all warming between Pakistan and India` but it did not extend to offering India a formal mediatory role in Afghanistan.

Pakistan must protect US interests, says Obama

·         President Barack Obama warned on October 7 that the United States would not feel comfortable in a long-term strategic relationship with Pakistan if it did not protect US interests as well.

·         In a 90-minute news conference at the White House, the US leader focused mainly on domestic issues, chiding banks, showing irritation with the Wall Street and urging lawmakers to help him create jobs.


·         This was Mr Obama`s first news conference since his former military chief Admiral Mike Mullen told a Senate hearing two weeks ago that Pakistan was encouraging the Haqqani network of militants to attack US and Nato targets in Afghanistan.
·         President Obama`s remarks, however, show that those lobbying for Pakistan `have their work cut out for them, as a senior Pakistani diplomat said. `With respect to Pakistan ... my number one goal is to make sure that Al Qaeda cannot attack the US homeland and cannot affect US interests around the world, Mr Obama said. `And we have done an outstanding job, I think, in going after, directly, Al Qaeda in this border region between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

·         To ease tensions between the two countries, the US had tried to get conversations between Afghans and Pakistanis going more effectively than they have been in the past, he said. `But we`ve still got more work to do.
‘10 years of war’ Obama vows to implement his Afghan plan
·         On the 10th anniversary of the US military campaign in Afghanistan (October 7), President Barack Obama told his nation that he was ending the Afghan war responsibly.

·         The war in Afghanistan became America`s longest military engagement ever but most Americans were still debating what should be the best strategy for bringing that war to an end.

·         In a statement issued by his office, Mr Obama pledged to implement his plans for turning over Afghanistan`s security to the Afghans themselves by 2014. `After a difficult decade, we are responsibly ending today`s wars from a position of strength,` Mr Obama said. `As the rest of our troops come home from Iraq this year, we have begun to draw down our forces in Afghanistan and transition security to the Afghan people, with whom we will forge an enduring partnership,` he said.


·         Afghan deaths were not reliably counted in the first years of the war. But the UN says 11,221 civilians have been killed since 2006, 1,462 of them in the first six months of this year. The costs both in lives and dollars are influencing the public opinion as well. A recent CBS News poll found that nearly 6 in 10 Americans say the United States should not be involved in Afghanistan, a sharp turnaround from as recently as two years ago, when a majority supported the US mission there. Almost 7 in 10 people say the war has gone on longer than they expected.

·         A recent Pew Research opinion poll suggests that one in three US veterans of the post-9/11 military believes the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were not worth fighting, and a majority think that after 10 years of combat America should be focusing more on its own problem.
·         Another Washington Post Pew Research Centre poll finds a 44 per cent plurality of Americans support for Obama`s plan to withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan by 2014. Roughly three in 10 say he is not withdrawing quickly enough and 14 per cent say he is moving too quickly. 
Ties with Pakistan vital to security, says US
·         Ties with Pakistan remained vital to US national security, the White House said on October 8 as the State Department pledged to continue to work with Islamabad to defeat terrorism.

·         `The cooperation we have with Pakistan is extremely important in terms of our national security objectives, in terms of protecting Americans, in terms of taking the fight to Al Qaeda, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney told a briefing in Washington.

Karzai asks US to step up pressure on Pakistan
·         Afghan President Hamid Karzai held talks with the US envoy for the region, Marc Grossman, in Kabul on October 8 just days after President Barack Obama warned Pakistan there were `some connections` between its intelligence services and the militants.

·         `The Afghan president asked Mr. Grossman to put more pressure on Pakistan so that future meetings with them should bring a positive result, one official at the presidential palace said.

·         Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, long mired in distrust, have recently deteriorated with Kabul alleging that the murder of its peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani was plotted in Pakistan and carried out by a Pakistani.

Negotiations with Taliban US encouraging Karzai to seek Pakistan`s help

·         US officials support Afghan President Hamid Karzai`s call for engaging the Taliban through Pakistan, The Washington Post reported on October 9 amid speculations that Washington and Islamabad are once again warming up to each other after unprecedented tensions.

·         Instead of dealing with `shadow intermediaries`, Mr Karzai wants to pursue reconciliation `in a way that`s more focused with established interlocutors, which the government of Pakistan would be one. We welcome that`, a senior US official told the Post.

·         Diplomatic sources in Washington told Dawn that as the first concrete step towards engaging Pakistan, the United States was encouraging Afghanistan to convene a meeting of a joint peace commission, established in June.

Conclusion/ Analysis
We have seen 10 years of going nowhere on one side of the border and 10 of going backwards on the other: back to bloodshed, back to civil chaos. It`s simplistic to say that Afghanistan doesn`t matter. You might as well say that the100 years of war that scarred medieval Europe didn`t matter. The real victim of Bush`s great 9/11 folly is Pakistan. It might have been a buoyant nation today, joining India and China at world economic forums.

A decade ago General Musharraf was Pakistan`s new man on top of the heap.
Its sense of grievance may be unappealing. The preoccupation with India, the futile attachment to Kashmir, the hapless swings between corrupt democracy and army autocracy are all heavy burdens. Yet the message of public opinion, in its bewilderment, cannot be ignored. For three decades of Afghan tumult, Pakistan has been blown hither and yon by outside imbecilities. And 10 full years after 9/11, it is the heaviest casualty of them all
.
A recent report by the government-funded US Institute of Peace (USIP) pointed out that the Pakistanis were not sure how the Americans wanted to shape the end-game in Afghanistan.
`Pakistani elite believe that the US would continue to push the Pakistan military to `do more` to stamp out militant sanctuaries while it tries to open up direct channels for talks with the Taliban with an eye on reducing reliance on Pakistan`s security establishment in the political and reconciliation process, the report noted.
Who is saying what about the US?
The protests on Wall Street and elsewhere in the United States will grow to `mark the downfall of the West,` Iran`s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Oct 12.

`This issue in America is very important, Khamenei said in a public speech broadcast on Iranian state television. `What they are calling the Wall Street movement has excited the people and is an important issue, which they (the US media) have tried to downplay, he told a crowd in the western city of Kermanshah.
 






Pak-US ties
Background:
The US persistently urged Pakistan to ‘cooperate’ in order to protect US interests in Afghanistan, during the past week.
Some statements:
Clinton says US open to discussing peace deal with Haqqanis
·         On October 12  two powerful US officials secretaries of state and defence had acknowledged Pakistan`s pivotal role in a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan, and one of them even stressed the need to reach out to the Haqqani network.

·         `The reality is that we cannot resolve the issues of Afghanistan without resolving the issues of Pakistan,` said Defence Secretary Leon Panetta.


·         `As we try to draw down and transition to a stable and secure Afghanistan, in many ways, we have to also have a stable and secure Pakistan. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in two separate interviews, signalled that the United States was open to discussing a peace deal with the Haqqanis, although they continued to target US and Nato troops.
US urged to avoid verbal assaults, finger-pointing
·         America`s special envoy Marc Grossman said on October 13after wide-ranging talks with political and military leadership on that US-Pakistan relations were important for both the countries and served their best interests.

·         The United States wanted strong and cordial relations with Pakistan, he said at a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar.

Engagement will be productive, hopes Clinton Pakistan continues to pose `real threat`: Panetta

·         Pakistan was one of the areas where terrorism remained a major threat, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta told a congressional hearing on October 13, but he refused to be dragged into a debate over the need to send US troops in that country.

·         Mr Panetta and Gen Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, both testified for the first time in their current positions on the future of US defence and the military 10 years after 9/11.

·         Mr Panetta identified Pakistan as one of the areas which posed `real threats` to the US and its interests.

US not sincere about Afghan peace: Haqqanis

·         The United States was not sincere about peace in Afghanistan when it signaled it would remain open to exploring a settlement that includes the Haqqani network, one of the group`s senior commanders said on October 13.
Report urges Obama to freeze Pakistan aid

·         An influential US think-tank urged the Obama administration on October 14 to freeze its aid to Pakistan until the country took actions against perpetrators of the US Embassy attack in Kabul and helped shut down the Haqqani network.

·         The Heritage Foundation, often used by former US president George W. Bush to announce foreign policy decisions, also asked the administration to back Congress on conditioning all US aid to Pakistan on certain counter-terrorism benchmarks. But the report warned that while this would be `a welcome tactic, it may be insufficient`.
Legislators briefed by army top brass US attack in N. Waziristan unlikely
·         Chief of the Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has ruled out the possibility of an immediate unilateral US military offensive in North Waziristan, saying the Americans will have to think 10 times before going for this.

·         The comments came at a rare briefing held on October 18 for members of the standing committees on defence of the two houses of parliament at the General Headquarters.

·         Gen Kayani said the US had been told that Pakistan did not need military aid, adding that he had received a call from Washington asking if he meant it. `My reply was we mean what we say`. He said only 20 per cent of the $1.5 billion aid under the Kerry-Lugar bill had so far been received.
·         Director General of Military Operations, MajGen Ashfaq Nadeem informed the legislators that Taliban activity in Afghanistan had increased by 40 per cent, despite 10 years of military presence of 49 countries. He said there were safe havens of Taliban in Kunar and Nuristan in Afghanistan.

·         `Taliban operate from there (Afghanistan) to launch attacks inside Pakistan.

·         Maj-Gen Nadeem said India`s cold start doctrine had added to the threats confronting Pakistan. He said seven out of nine Indian commands and three strike corps were along the border with Pakistan. Eighty-one per cent of forward and main operating bases were positioned against Pakistan.



Biometric system to be revived along Afghan border: Malik

·         Interior Minister Rehman Malik said on October 19 that Pakistan had decided to restore biometric system on its border with Afghanistan from Nov 30 to stop illegal crossing from both sides. He said no-one would be allowed to cross the border without going through the screening process.


(The biometric system is designed to replace the previous permit system, by issuing border passes to people after recording their fingerprints, retinas or facial patterns for identification.)
Afghan troop pullout plan being altered: US general
·         The US-led coalition has launched a new offensive against one of Afghanistan`s most potent militant networks and plans to ramp up operations next year along the border with Pakistan before the American troop drawdown gathers steam, its top commander confirmed on October 19.

·         Marine Gen John Allen said the `high-intensity, sensitive` operation that began just a few days ago targeted the Haqqani group.

·         Gen Allen commands more than 130,000 international troops in Afghanistan, including about 98,000 from the United States.

·         The four-star general in his 50s, who succeeded Gen David Petraeus in July, came to Afghanistan as the international military coalition prepares to withdraw fighting forces by the end of 2014, leaving foreign troops in support or training roles only. Gen Allen said the plan is now for the transition to be achieved in five steps the last starting as early as the fall of 2013 instead of late 2013 or early 2014 as had been discussed

·         Hillary Clinton comes to Pakistan on October 20.
The US pressure continues to pierce Pakistani top brass

Clinton arrives with tough message

·         US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Pakistan on October 20 on what observers here said was a dual mission to convey a tough message to Pakistan to act against the Haqqani network and dismantle militants` `safe havens` on this side of the border and try to repair the dents relations between the countries have suffered in recent months.

·         The officials accompanying her, CIA Director Gen David Petraeus, Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Marc Grossman, Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Martin Dempesy and President Barack Obama`s Adviser on Afghan War Lt-Gen Douglas Lute, indicated the nature of talks she wanted to hold in Islamabad.

·         And the civil and military leaders of Pakistan who held the first round of talks immediately after her arrival testified to the seriousness Islamabad attached to the visit.

·         Her meeting with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was attended by Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar, Finance Minister Dr Hafeez Shaikh, Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir, Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and ISI Chief Lt-Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha.

·         Officially it was said that bilateral relations, war on terror and the situation in Afghanistan were discussed at the meeting.

·         Ms Clinton expressed the US desire to maintain strategic partnership with Pakistan, but stressed that Pakistan must sever ties with militants as a prerequisite for that.

·         `We intend to push the Pakistanis very hard as to what they are willing and able to do with us... to remove the safe havens and the continuing threats across the border to Afghans,` she said.

Help US to `fight, talk & build`- Clinton`s 3-point strategy for ties with Pakistan

·         US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on October 20 that she wanted Pakistan to work with the United States on a three-point strategy for defeating extremists, which includes fighting the militants, talking with them and building the region.

·         She reminded Pakistanis that the militants were killing not only Afghans and Americans but had also killed 30,000 Pakistanis in the last 10 years.

·         Urging Pakistani authorities to destroy militant safe havens in Fata, she said those sites were also used to attack targets inside Pakistan.

·         The Pakistanis, she said, could `do a lot` in helping the US `in making sure that they don`t cross the border` she said, underlining what precise actions Washington wanted Islamabad to take.

·         In the talking category, Secretary Clinton urged Pakistan to `unequivocally state publicly that they want to see the Afghan Taliban and those associated with them, which would include the Haqqani network, to begin negotiating towards a resolution with the Afghans themselves, and that they will, with us, stand behind that kind of negotiation.

·         On the third, i.e. building, she urged Pakistan to be part of helping to create the regional architecture that `we`re looking for at the conference in Istanbul in early November and the conference at Bonn in early December` This, she said, would enable Pakistan to be part of `the international community that promotes economic integration in the region, that understands there has to be security for there to be prosperity`.

·         `Yet we also need to reach out and talk with those who are willing to reconcile on the three terms that have been laid out: Renounce violence, break with Al Qaeda, and respect the laws and constitution of Afghanistan, including protecting the rights of minorities and women. 
Pakistan urged to play role of peacemaker Clinton demands action in `days and weeks`
·         In a rather bitter-sweet message, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asked Islamabad on October 21 to start dismantling militant safe havens along the Afghan border within `days and weeks`, but said the United States respected Pakistan`s sovereignty and would not undertake any unilateral action against terrorists on its soil.

·         During an extensive interaction with media personnel and members of civil society, she urged Pakistan to do more to nudge and push the Taliban towards the negotiating table. Pakistan-US ties were important and they needed each other, she added.

US likened to mother-in-law

·         `We are trying to please you, and every time you come and visit us you have a new idea and tell us, `You are not doing enough and need to work harder`,` said Shamama, who works for a women`s group in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Laughing at length, Ms Clinton said she could personally relate to the woman`s perspective because she too was a mother-in-law.

Pakistan ready to arrange talks with Taliban, US told
·         Pakistan has told the United States it is ready to facilitate its talks with the Taliban, but cannot become a guarantor to the negotiating process, a senior security official told Dawn on October 22.

·         `Pakistan must not be blamed in case of failure of attempts (by US) f or reconciliation with the Taliban as it does not spoon-feed them,` the official remarked.

·         `Contact with the Haqqani group is there, but they are notin our pocket,` was the message put across during a crucial meeting between the two sides on October 21.

Clinton visit eases US-Pakistan misgivings
·         In her interview with Fox News, Secretary Clinton, when asked to comment on Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani`s recent statement that instead of blaming Pakistan for all its problems Afghanistan should try to deal with them first, appeared sympathetic to Islamabad`s position on this issue too.
·         The United States, however, has also asked Pakistan to launch a military operation against Afghan militants, particularly the Haqqani network, which it says operates from the country`s tribal belt.
Karzai says he`ll back Pakistan in conflict with US

·         Afghanistan would support Pakistan in case of military conflict between Pakistan and the United States, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said in an interview to a Pakistani TV channel broadcast on October 22.

US, Pakistan `agree on work plan`

·         The United States and Pakistan have 90-95 per cent agreement on a work plan to combat terrorists, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on October 23 while reflecting on her two day visit to Islamabad.

·         The delegation, which included the CIA and US military chiefs, stressed two points: both countries have to work together to eliminate the threat from safe havens and they also need to back an Afghan-led reconciliation process.

US not seeking overt military action in Fata, says Clinton

·         The United States has asked the Pakistanis to squeeze the Taliban and the Haqqani network but that does not necessarily mean taking overt military action against them, said US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who also acknowledged that the Pakistani Taliban had built safe havens in Afghanistan.

·         In two interviews to US media outlets, released by the State Department on October 24, Secretary Clinton indicated that the US was not planning to send ground troops into Fata to target terrorist hideouts.
Pace and scope of talks to be decided by Afghans Accord with US on Taliban `tri-logue`
·         The United States and Pakistan agree on a framework for holding direct talks with the militants and are now working to operationalise the plan, says the US State Department.

·         At a briefing for the press corps that accompanied Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Islamabad last week, two State Department officials explained what the secretary meant when she said in her recent interviews that the US and Pakistan had agreement on 90-95 per cent of issues they confronted.  

·         They said the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan had already an understanding on holding a `tri-logue` with the Taliban militants

CONCLUSION/ANALYSIS
`DAYS and weeks, not months and years,` said US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Islamabad on Friday. She was referring to the time frame within which America wants to make progress with Pakistan on a range of regional security issues, from Afghanistan`s reconciliation process and confronting the Haqqani network to solving the problem of improvised explosive devices on both sides of the border. Her words brought a new urgency to the need for sorting out US-Pakistan relations. But even when combined with her blunt remarks in Kabul earlier about the need for Pakistan to go after militant safe havens here, her visit can hardly be interpreted, as some sections of the media had done before her arrival, as the delivery of a final warning that Pakistan must cooperate, or else.
In fact, Ms Clinton lowered the temperature and undertook useful public diplomacy by addressing at least three issues that have become the source of much concern in Pakistan: she said unequivocally that there would be no American boots on the ground in Pakistan in reply to questions about whether the US will launch unilateral strikes if action is not taken against the Haqqani network. She stated that America has no evidence of the involvement of Pakistani intelligence in the attack on the US embassy in Kabul. And even as she reiterated theneed for Pakistan to pursue the Afghan Taliban, Ms Clinton said action would be taken against Pakistani Taliban who have found refuge on the Afghan side of the border.
She was also frank about America`s openness to negotiating with the Haqqani network even while combating it militarily, and said that Pakistan should play a role in the former effort, not just the latter. This creates some common ground with the All-Party Conference resolution that emphasises dialogue with militants, could be a useful way to leverage Pakistan`s contacts, and might make it easier for Pakistan to cooperate with efforts to neutralise the Haqqani network. And in remarks at her joint press conference with the Pakistani foreign minister, the focus was on putting these plans into action.
Conclusively, resetting Pakistan-US relations will require a mutual retreat from the rhetoric and recriminations of recent months.

Haqqani safe havens have to be destroyed; strong Pak-India ties real game-changer Clinton wants Mulla Omar in peace talks
·         US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a congressional panel on October 27 that any Afghan-led peace process would have to include the Quetta Shura and its leader Mulla Omar.

·         Her statement before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs also emphasized several other key points reflecting a major change in US approach towards seeking a peaceful end to the Afghan conflict

·         There is no solution in the region without Pakistan and no stable future in the region without a partnership.

·         The US needs to negotiate with the Haqqani network while continuing to work with Pakistan to destroy the safe havens it has inside Fata.

·         The US aid to Pakistan should not be conditioned to disbanding Lashkar-i-Taiba. And the `real game-changer in the region` would be a stronger relationship between Pakistan and India.


Panetta`s reward for Osama hunt
·         Pentagon chief Leon Panetta will bring in the new year with a $10,000 bottle of Chateau Lafite Rothschild from 1870, courtesy of a bet with a friend over tracking down Osama bin Laden.

·         The wager was struck last new year`s eve in California, when restaurateur Ted Balestreri pledged to uncork the oldest bottle in his collection if Panetta then the CIA director found the Al Qaeda mastermind.

Pak safe havens, Karzai govt ineptness worry Pentagon

·         Militant safe havens in Pakistan and the Karzai government`s incapacities pose a significant threat to peace in Afghanistan, says a Pentagon report released on October 28 as US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned American lawmakers `not to undercut our progress` in the region.

·         The Pentagon report noted that the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan had improved early on, but several events had severely strained the ties.

·         Most notable was the May 2 US raid on Osama bin Laden`s compound in Abbottabad. Cross-border attacks diminished in August but high-profile attacks in September, including an assault on the US embassy in Kabul, were a significant setback.

·         The report said that these attacks `were carried out by the Haqqani network and directly enabled by Pakistani safe haven and support` Secretary Clinton asked the Congress not to allow its growing frustration with the situation in the Pakistan-Afghan region to mar US relationships with the two countries.

·         `Working with our Afghan and Pakistani partners is not always easy but these relationships are advancing America`s national security interests. And walking away would undermine those interests, she told the lawmakers as some of them urged the Obama administration to reconsider its relations with the two countries.

·         The lawmakers were particularly concerned with Pakistan`s alleged refusal to rein in the Haqqani network and had urged Secretary Clinton to stop US military aid to the country. 

US has no permission for drone strikes: Gilani
·         Prime Minister Yousuf  Raza Gilani categorically said on October 29 that no permission had been granted to the United States to launch drone attacks on targets inside Pakistan.

·         `There is no such permission,` he told a large group of Pakistani expatriates.


·         Mr. Gilani, who is in Australia on a four day visit to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, said drone attacks were counter-productive because they caused collateral damage and undermined the government`s efforts to garner support against extremists and terrorists.

November 2011, US back on track! PAK-US ties move towards normalcy
US seeking ISI`s help to end Afghan war, says NYT
·         Just a month after accusing the Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI, of supporting the Haqqani network in its attacks on US troops in Afghanistan, the Obama administration is seeking the agency`s help to organise reconciliation talks aimed at ending the war in Afghanistan, the New York Times reported on October 31.

·         It said the revamped approach, which US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called `Fight, Talk, Build` during a high-level US delegation`s visit to Kabul and Islamabad last month, combined continued American air and ground strikes against the Haqqani network and the Taliban with an insistence that Pakistan`s Inter Services Intelligence agency get them to the negotiating table.

·         The Times observed the strategy was emerging amid an increase in the pace of attacks against Americans in Kabul, including a suicide attack on Saturday that killed as many as 10 Americans and in which the Haqqanis were suspected. It is the latest effort at brokering a deal with militants before the last of 33,000 American `surge` troops prepare to pull out of Afghanistan by September, and comes as early hopes in the White House about having the outlines of a deal in time for a multinational conference on Dec 5 in Bonn, Germany, have been all but abandoned.


No peace in Afghanistan without Pakistan help: US
·         The Afghan reconciliation process needs active support from Pakistan to succeed, said the US State Department on November 2, although it played down media reports that the Obama administration had decided to give Islamabad a greater role in the peace process.

·         At the regular briefing, spokesperson Victoria Nuland described the reports as `a little bit overwritten` but acknowledged that the US was working with Pakistan to secure a peace deal.

·         The US media, however, insisted that Washington was willing to give Pakistan a greater role because it believed that doing so would curtail their support for the insurgency.

·         Ms Nuland explained that as the US supported an Afghan-led effort to talk, the Pakistanis should be `signalling to Taliban who may be reconcilable on their side of the border that they support talks within the Afghan red lines`. 

Pakistan aid should continue: Clinton

·         Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in a message released on November 4, has urged the US Congress to continue providing financial assistance to Pakistan and warned that disengaging at this stage would undermine America`s national security interests.

·         Secretary Clinton`s message to Congress accompanies a status report on Pakistan and Afghanistan from the State Department, which also strongly endorses America`s continued engagement with both countries.

·         `In Pakistan, it means leveraging the resources provided by the landmark Kerry Lugar-Berman legislation to address major economic challenges that threaten Pakistan`s stability,` the secretary said.

Zardari `assured US of action against Haqqanis`

·         President Asif Ali Zardari promised to work with the United States to `eradicate` the militant Haqqani network, a pledge made during a meeting with visiting American congressmen, on November 9.
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Mullen denies receiving Ijaz`s letter
On Oct 10, Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz claimed that President Zardari had sought Washington`s help for removing the army and ISIchiefs and assured the latter that he would cut all ties to militant groups if it assisted him do so. The president allegedly made this offer in a letter he gave Mr Ijaz for personally delivering it to the American leaders.

On November 9-  `Admiral Mullen does not know Mr Ijaz and has no recollection of receiving any correspondence from him,` said a message from the former US military chief. Capt John Kirby, a former spokesman for the admiral, said Mr Mullen had asked him to release this message on his behalf.`I cannot say definitively that correspondence did not come from him the admiral received many missives as chairman from many people every day, some official, some not. But he does not recall one from this individual,` Capt Kirby told The Cable, a publication associated with the prestigious Foreign Policy group.












But the head of the Homeland Security delegation, Michael McCaul, downplayed the significance of the remarks, saying it was unclear whether President Zardari had the power to make good on his pledge, given the influence of the Pakistani military.








Mansoor Ijaz stands by his claim
·         Mansoor Ijaz, a PakistaniAmerican who claims to have delivered a secret message to US officials on behalf of President Asif Ali Zardari, said on November 11 that his contacts indeed had delivered that letter to the then US military chief Admiral Mike Mullen.

·         Earlier this week, Mr Mullen`s spokesman Captain John Kirby said that the admiral had not received any letter from Mr Ijaz.

·         On Oct 10, Mr Ijaz claimed that President Zardari had sought Washington`s help for removing the army and ISI chiefs and had assured the Obama administration that he would cut all ties to militant groups if it assisted him do so.

·         The president allegedly made this offer in a letter he gave Mr Ijaz for personally delivering it to American leaders.

·         But earlier this week, The Cable, a publication associated with the prestigious Foreign Policy group, published a report based on a statement by Mr Mullen`s spokesman, saying that the admiral did `not know Mr Ijaz and has no recollection of receiving any correspondence from him Capt Kirby also said he `cannot say definitively that correspondence did not come from him the admiral received many missives as chairman from many people every day, some official, some not. But he does not recall one from this individual`.

·         In an email message to Dawn, Mr. Ijaz pointed out that the denial confirmed his claim.

·         `I never said I delivered anything to Admiral Mullen.

·         What I wrote was the memo was delivered to Admiral Mullen at 1400 hrs on May 10,` Mr. Ijaz wrote. `We have proof that Admiral Mullen received the memorandum and acknowledged to the person who delivered it to him.

·         Mr. Ijaz confirmed Capt Kirby`s claim that Admiral Mullen did not know the Pakistani-American businessman.


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